Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 23, 2010.

5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds

Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 100 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.

Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.

Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.

In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.

Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.

Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol

99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 Sweden Index, EWD
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 REIT Wilshire, RWR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 23, 2010.

Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength

Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds , based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.

Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile of the list may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.

Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell

Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.

Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol

99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
96 Sweden Index, EWD
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
95 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 REIT Wilshire, RWR
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
91 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
90 India PS, PIN
89 Mexico Index, EWW
89 South Korea Index, EWY
88 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
87 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
86 Networking, IGN
86 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
85 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
84 Emerging Markets, EEM
84 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
83 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
82 Russia MV, RSX
81 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Silver Trust iS, SLV
80 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
79 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
79 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
78 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
77 Financial Preferred, PGF
76 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
76 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
75 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
74 Dividend SPDR, SDY
74 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
73 MidCap Russell, IWR
72 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
71 Brazil Index, EWZ
71 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
70 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
69 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
69 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
68 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
67 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
66 Technology DJ US, IYW
66 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
65 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
64 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
64 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
63 Hong Kong Index, EWH
62 Bond, Corp, LQD
61 Taiwan Index, EWT
61 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
60 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
59 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
59 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
58 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
57 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
56 Industrial SPDR, XLI
56 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
55 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
54 Dividend International, PID
54 China 25 iS, FXI
53 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
52 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
51 Technology SPDR, XLK
51 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
50 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
49 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
49 Canada Index, EWC
48 DIAMONDS , DIA
47 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
46 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
46 Netherlands Index, EWN
45 Utilities SPDR, XLU
44 Microcap Russell, IWC
44 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
43 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
42 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
41 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
41 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
40 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
39 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
39 Growth VIPERs, VUG
38 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
37 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
36 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
36 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
35 Bond, TIPS, TIP
34 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
34 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
33 Switzerland Index, EWL
32 United Kingdom Index, EWU
31 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
31 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
30 Materials SPDR, XLB
29 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
28 Australia Index, EWA
27 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
26 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
26 European VIPERs, VGK
25 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
24 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
24 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
23 Germany Index, EWG
22 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
21 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
21 Belgium Index, EWK
20 Value VIPERs, VTV
19 Financials VIPERs, VFH
19 Financial DJ US, IYF
18 EAFE Index, EFA
17 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
16 Water Resources, PHO
16 Global 100, IOO
15 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
14 Financial SPDR, XLF
14 Energy VIPERs, VDE
13 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
12 Japan Index, EWJ
11 Energy SPDR, XLE
11 Biotech SPDR, XBI
10 Commodity Tracking, DBC
9 EMU Europe Index, EZU
9 Energy DJ, IYE
8 Financial Services DJ, IYG
7 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
6 Health Care SPDR, XLV
6 Energy Global, IXC
5 France Index, EWQ
4 Spain Index, EWP
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3 Austria Index, EWO
2 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Italy Index, EWI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Simulated weekly performance
of top 10 ETFs

As shown below, my 10 ETFs, ranked each week by their relative strength, gained substantially more than the S&P 500 since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Date , S&P 500 , Top 10
8/20/04 , 100.00 , 100.00
8/27/04 , 100.86 , 101.91
9/3/04 , 101.39 , 101.90
9/11/04 , 102.33 , 103.88
9/17/04 , 102.75 , 104.31
9/24/04 , 101.07 , 106.78
10/1/04 , 103.02 , 106.69
10/8/04 , 102.17 , 110.18
10/15/04 , 100.90 , 111.75
10/22/04 , 99.76 , 109.37
10/29/04 , 102.90 , 110.15
11/5/04 , 106.17 , 111.23
11/12/04 , 107.81 , 114.52
11/19/04 , 106.55 , 117.46
11/26/04 , 107.68 , 116.81
12/3/04 , 108.45 , 120.65
12/10/04 , 108.16 , 122.30
12/17/04 , 108.73 , 118.70
12/24/04 , 110.18 , 120.94
12/31/04 , 110.34 , 122.56
1/7/05 , 108.00 , 124.27
1/14/05 , 107.85 , 117.64
1/22/05 , 106.33 , 118.28
1/28/05 , 106.65 , 115.88
2/4/05 , 109.53 , 118.24
2/11/05 , 109.74 , 122.17
2/18/05 , 109.40 , 124.41
2/26/05 , 110.29 , 127.46
3/4/05 , 111.27 , 132.68
3/11/05 , 109.26 , 134.14
3/18/05 , 108.31 , 129.62
3/25/05 , 106.65 , 127.85
4/1/05 , 106.79 , 122.68
4/8/05 , 107.54 , 125.70
4/15/05 , 104.03 , 125.41
4/22/05 , 104.90 , 118.40
4/29/05 , 105.33 , 121.41
5/6/05 , 106.65 , 119.85
5/13/05 , 105.07 , 121.51
5/20/05 , 108.28 , 116.64
5/27/05 , 109.14 , 120.80
6/4/05 , 108.89 , 121.63
6/10/05 , 109.08 , 122.76
6/17/05 , 110.80 , 123.09
6/24/05 , 108.49 , 128.50
7/1/05 , 108.75 , 125.38
7/9/05 , 110.33 , 127.64
7/15/05 , 111.80 , 129.40
7/22/05 , 112.32 , 129.44
7/29/05 , 112.37 , 133.01
8/5/05 , 111.66 , 134.40
8/12/05 , 112.02 , 135.66
8/19/05 , 111.05 , 138.84
8/26/05 , 109.72 , 134.34
9/2/05 , 110.90 , 134.72
9/10/05 , 113.03 , 142.25
9/16/05 , 112.71 , 145.58
9/23/05 , 110.65 , 145.65
9/30/05 , 111.88 , 146.84
10/7/05 , 108.88 , 150.57
10/14/05 , 108.03 , 141.26
10/21/05 , 107.40 , 137.12
10/28/05 , 109.11 , 134.34
11/4/05 , 111.09 , 136.69
11/11/05 , 112.42 , 142.53
11/18/05 , 113.65 , 143.84
11/25/05 , 115.47 , 145.81
12/2/05 , 115.18 , 149.02
12/9/05 , 114.66 , 150.54
12/16/05 , 115.38 , 151.02
12/23/05 , 115.51 , 149.72
12/31/05 , 113.65 , 152.29
1/7/06 , 117.03 , 151.09
1/13/06 , 117.23 , 161.86
1/21/06 , 114.85 , 162.81
1/27/06 , 116.88 , 161.57
2/3/06 , 115.08 , 166.78
2/10/06 , 115.35 , 162.81
2/17/06 , 117.20 , 160.41
2/25/06 , 117.40 , 162.62
3/3/06 , 117.20 , 163.95
3/10/06 , 116.67 , 163.37
3/17/06 , 119.02 , 154.31
3/24/06 , 118.63 , 161.00
3/31/06 , 117.89 , 160.19
4/7/06 , 117.95 , 161.40
4/14/06 , 117.37 , 164.56
4/21/06 , 119.39 , 164.21
4/28/06 , 119.33 , 173.62
5/5/06 , 120.70 , 172.42
5/12/06 , 117.56 , 180.23
5/19/06 , 115.36 , 174.52
5/26/06 , 116.55 , 162.11
6/3/06 , 117.29 , 159.42
6/9/06 , 114.02 , 159.68
6/16/06 , 113.95 , 148.42
6/23/06 , 113.31 , 145.56
6/30/06 , 115.65 , 146.29
7/7/06 , 115.22 , 153.11
7/14/06 , 112.55 , 152.15
7/21/06 , 112.92 , 150.84
7/28/06 , 116.41 , 154.93
8/4/06 , 116.48 , 157.29
8/11/06 , 115.33 , 154.55
8/18/06 , 118.57 , 154.44
8/25/06 , 117.91 , 152.05
9/1/06 , 119.36 , 154.35
9/9/06 , 118.26 , 150.73
9/15/06 , 120.15 , 153.02
9/22/06 , 119.71 , 153.19
9/29/06 , 121.62 , 154.84
10/6/06 , 122.87 , 156.44
10/13/06 , 124.33 , 159.77
10/20/06 , 124.61 , 159.84
10/27/06 , 125.40 , 161.04
11/3/06 , 124.21 , 159.49
11/10/06 , 125.72 , 163.29
11/17/06 , 127.57 , 165.07
11/24/06 , 127.55 , 167.50
12/1/06 , 127.16 , 166.09
12/8/06 , 128.36 , 168.66
12/15/06 , 129.93 , 170.28
12/22/06 , 128.44 , 165.79
12/29/06 , 129.13 , 171.22
1/5/07 , 128.35 , 166.88
1/12/07 , 130.26 , 168.24
1/19/07 , 130.24 , 168.95
1/26/07 , 129.48 , 169.36
2/2/07 , 131.87 , 172.69
2/9/07 , 130.93 , 174.36
2/16/07 , 132.52 , 176.28
2/23/07 , 132.12 , 175.58
3/2/07 , 126.30 , 159.04
3/9/07 , 127.67 , 162.61
3/16/07 , 126.28 , 160.79
3/23/07 , 130.75 , 169.15
3/30/07 , 129.36 , 169.59
4/6/07 , 131.45 , 176.16
4/13/07 , 132.28 , 179.67
4/20/07 , 135.14 , 182.01
4/27/07 , 136.03 , 181.21
5/4/07 , 137.08 , 184.23
5/11/07 , 137.10 , 184.71
5/18/07 , 138.64 , 187.36
5/25/07 , 138.00 , 186.33
6/1/07 , 139.88 , 192.19
6/8/07 , 137.27 , 185.55
6/15/07 , 139.56 , 192.92
6/22/07 , 136.80 , 192.29
6/29/07 , 136.87 , 190.20
7/6/07 , 139.34 , 199.72
7/13/07 , 141.35 , 205.39
7/20/07 , 139.67 , 203.16
7/27/07 , 132.83 , 189.93
8/3/07 , 130.47 , 184.58
8/10/07 , 132.35 , 182.79
8/17/07 , 131.65 , 172.13
8/24/07 , 134.69 , 182.28
8/31/07 , 134.20 , 185.84
9/7/07 , 132.34 , 182.92
9/14/07 , 135.13 , 189.73
9/21/07 , 138.91 , 201.08
9/28/07 , 139.00 , 207.07
10/5/07 , 141.81 , 217.06
10/12/07 , 142.20 , 222.48
10/19/07 , 136.63 , 213.36
10/26/07 , 139.78 , 227.40
11/2/07 , 137.45 , 226.57
11/9/07 , 132.35 , 212.38
11/16/07 , 132.81 , 209.55
11/23/07 , 131.17 , 202.27
11/30/07 , 134.85 , 206.12
12/7/07 , 136.99 , 211.39
12/14/07 , 133.65 , 200.62
12/21/07 , 135.15 , 205.20
12/28/07 , 134.61 , 205.02
1/4/08 , 128.52 , 198.75
1/11/08 , 127.56 , 200.50
1/18/08 , 120.65 , 188.83
1/25/08 , 121.15 , 187.64
2/1/08 , 127.05 , 181.90
2/8/08 , 121.21 , 181.09
2/15/08 , 122.91 , 181.77
2/22/08 , 124.11 , 188.08
2/29/08 , 121.15 , 192.12
3/7/08 , 117.76 , 193.50
3/14/08 , 117.28 , 195.18
3/20/08 , 121.05 , 180.69
3/28/08 , 119.75 , 182.06
4/4/08 , 124.77 , 181.64
4/11/08 , 121.35 , 182.30
4/18/08 , 126.58 , 191.34
4/25/08 , 127.27 , 189.58
5/2/08 , 128.73 , 187.80
5/9/08 , 126.40 , 193.58
5/16/08 , 129.77 , 201.96
5/23/08 , 125.27 , 200.26
5/30/08 , 127.50 , 202.73
6/6/08 , 123.88 , 205.04
6/13/08 , 123.82 , 203.44
6/20/08 , 119.99 , 204.08
6/27/08 , 116.39 , 204.55
7/3/08 , 114.98 , 198.71
7/11/08 , 112.85 , 198.77
7/18/08 , 114.78 , 189.17
7/25/08 , 114.51 , 188.02
8/1/08 , 114.75 , 192.91
8/8/08 , 118.02 , 184.91
8/15/08 , 118.20 , 186.17
8/22/08 , 117.65 , 182.27
8/29/08 , 116.80 , 179.79
9/5/08 , 113.11 , 176.60
9/12/08 , 113.96 , 174.92
9/19/08 , 114.27 , 174.93
9/26/08 , 110.46 , 172.47
10/3/08 , 100.08 , 190.50
10/9/08 , 82.84 , 232.08
10/17/08 , 85.63 , 217.04
10/24/08 , 79.83 , 237.28
10/31/08 , 88.20 , 203.12
11/7/08 , 84.76 , 211.90
11/14/08 , 79.51 , 226.64
11/21/08 , 72.84 , 249.02
11/28/08 , 81.60 , 217.64
12/5/08 , 79.76 , 220.06
12/12/08 , 80.10 , 216.07
12/19/08 , 80.84 , 215.21
12/26/08 , 79.46 , 218.49
1/2/09 , 84.84 , 200.77
1/9/09 , 81.06 , 204.82
1/16/09 , 77.40 , 213.16
1/23/09 , 75.75 , 216.12
1/30/09 , 75.19 , 215.69
2/6/09 , 79.08 , 200.81
2/13/09 , 75.28 , 212.89
2/20/09 , 70.11 , 231.70
2/27/09 , 66.93 , 239.07
3/6/09 , 62.22 , 258.45
3/13/09 , 68.88 , 227.97
3/20/09 , 69.97 , 225.01
3/27/09 , 74.29 , 205.49
4/3/09 , 76.71 , 197.61
4/10/09 , 77.99 , 196.66
4/17/09 , 79.17 , 195.55
4/24/09 , 78.87 , 195.64
5/1/09 , 79.89 , 193.41
5/8/09 , 84.60 , 196.64
5/15/09 , 80.38 , 185.68
5/22/09 , 80.76 , 186.97
5/29/09 , 83.68 , 195.85
6/5/09 , 85.59 , 197.89
6/12/09 , 86.15 , 196.71
6/19/09 , 83.87 , 187.50
6/26/09 , 83.66 , 188.93
7/3/09 , 81.62 , 185.32
7/10/09 , 80.04 , 179.40
7/17/09 , 85.62 , 193.37
7/24/09 , 89.16 , 204.04
7/31/09 , 89.91 , 204.36
8/7/09 , 92.00 , 206.18
8/14/09 , 91.42 , 204.49
8/21/09 , 93.42 , 205.40
8/28/09 , 93.68 , 205.62
9/4/09 , 92.54 , 202.80
9/11/09 , 94.94 , 209.05
9/18/09 , 97.26 , 215.33
9/25/09 , 95.09 , 209.01
10/2/09 , 93.34 , 202.00
10/9/09 , 97.55 , 215.16
10/16/09 , 99.03 , 218.66
10/23/09 , 98.29 , 215.23
10/30/09 , 94.34 , 198.32
11/6/09 , 97.36 , 207.43
11/13/09 , 99.56 , 213.90
11/20/09 , 99.37 , 210.53
11/27/09 , 99.38 , 210.24
12/4/09 , 100.69 , 214.97
12/11/09 , 100.73 , 210.86
12/18/09 , 100.38 , 207.62
12/24/09 , 102.56 , 214.83
12/31/09 , 101.53 , 212.11
1/8/10 , 104.25 , 219.35
1/15/10 , 103.43 , 213.49
1/22/10 , 99.40 , 201.27
1/29/10 , 97.77 , 195.18
2/5/10 , 97.07 , 189.12
2/12/10 , 97.92 , 195.11
2/19/10 , 100.99 , 202.11
2/26/10 , 100.56 , 201.77
3/5/10 , 103.67 , 212.78
3/12/10 , 104.70 , 217.95
3/19/10 , 105.60 , 216.72
3/26/10 , 106.21 , 218.54
4/1/10 , 107.26 , 221.41
4/9/10 , 108.74 , 226.29
4/16/10 , 108.54 , 221.56
4/23/10 , 110.83 , 227.97
4/30/10 , 108.04 , 220.60
5/7/10 , 101.14 , 200.18
5/14/10 , 103.40 , 207.57
5/21/10 , 99.03 , 194.24
5/28/10 , 99.19 , 198.39
6/4/10 , 96.95 , 189.53
6/11/10 , 99.39 , 198.22
6/18/10 , 101.74 , 204.88
6/25/10 , 98.03 , 200.18
7/2/10 , 93.10 , 191.66
7/9/10 , 98.14 , 196.67
7/16/10 , 96.95 , 193.62
7/23/10 , 100.39 , 200.03
Date , S&P 500 , Top 10